Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.468348 3.364669 4.635249 6.632282 9.819208 1.495081e+01 2.440449e+01
2025-03-23 1.619549 2.536020 4.102000 7.195505 13.795612 2.916549e+01 7.621804e+01
2025-03-30 1.131147 1.974138 3.651284 7.705361 19.196217 5.971470e+01 3.127870e+02
2025-04-06 0.768910 1.451425 2.972939 7.295215 23.022363 1.076827e+02 1.519319e+03
2025-04-13 0.533414 1.068948 2.374048 6.610880 25.908352 1.876542e+02 1.320725e+04
2025-04-20 0.414933 0.886549 2.154097 6.956892 36.030011 5.173909e+02 1.063025e+08
2025-04-27 0.343578 0.783057 2.090251 7.959838 58.336154 2.635259e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.291462 0.705438 2.062278 9.305221 102.547760 4.158377e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.242530 0.614911 1.932927 10.066998 164.684100 2.040759e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 0.195444 0.510269 1.681012 9.645433 212.723387 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.156811 0.417551 1.420322 8.724051 241.793641 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.136050 0.374695 1.347618 9.357778 409.831607 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.117320 0.333542 1.265735 9.942222 742.843066 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.103643 0.304817 1.226390 11.087585 1724.654557 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.091702 0.277855 1.178191 12.158568 4493.162180 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.078387 0.241013 1.049071 11.590235 7370.528634 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.066618 0.206543 0.912652 10.493526 9556.156961 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059883 0.189829 0.873413 11.210254 34464.277557 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.055503 0.181112 0.879273 13.145103 656369.177649 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.051907 0.174412 0.894984 15.792580 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047636 0.163328 0.871369 17.370480 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.042495 0.146814 0.794937 16.619954 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.037533 0.129860 0.705140 14.879100 NaN NaN NaN